The OCTA research group said that hospitals and facilities in Metro Manila could be overwhelmed by the first week of April—around Eastertime—if the uptrend of cases continues.
The group based their projection on a reproduction rate of 1.9 in the metro and an increase in new daily cases which it described as “at a critical juncture.” The reproduction rate means that one infected person passes the virus on to nearly two persons.
“This explosive rise in cases in the capital region now threatens the integrity of our healthcare system,” they said.
Unless an extreme and swift response is delivered by national and local governments, hospitals and healthcare workers alike will be overrun.
OCTA said that their prediction had not even taken into account the spread of Covid19 variants, the presence of which have been confirmed in Metro Manila.
Health worker groups have said that the current situation has already affected personnel, with Filipino Nurses United (FNU) reporting the deaths of two members.
The healthcare community has since appealed to the public to stay home and cancel non-essential trips as well as wear face masks even while at home. Metro Manila along with four adjacent provinces have also been placed under a GCQ ‘bubble’, with some parts under localized lockdowns.
The country has seen a worrying rise in the number of new daily cases this week, with the highest number of cases in a single-day tally reaching over 8,000, the highest ever since the beginning of the pandemic.