Analytics firm Fitch Solutions said that coal will remain the country’s top energy source in the next 10 years in spite of the ban on coal-powered generators, whose impact will be felt only on a much longer term.
It expects the Philippines to be dependent on coal, as it is still the most practical way to produce affordable electricity to support a growing economy.
The Malampaya field, which provides the entire nation’s current natural gas, is seen to decline over time, especially with its goal of energizing the whole country by next year. Fitch determines this to be a factor making the Philippines all the more reliant on coal.
By 2029, Fitch predicts coal to make up 59% of the country’s energy mix, up from 29.1% in 2019.
Coal is the cheaper and more reliable choice in meeting the country’s power demand surge, caused by “strong macroeconomic and demographic fundamentals.”
Following public opposition on coal projects, the Duterte administration said that they would no longer accept applications for coal power plant construction, a move which allowed 100% foreign ownership of geothermal energy plants.
However, coal projects okayed before the announcement are not covered by the ban.